OA646: A Comprehensive Guide to Watching the Midterms

Transcript

This transcript was generated automatically and may contain errors — the audio is the record.

0:01:17 Thomas: Hello and welcome to Opening Arguments, this is episode 646. I'm Thomas, that's Andrew Torres, our expert, and, uh, today our midterms election expert. How you doing, Andrew? Yeah, yeah, yeah,

0:01:28 Andrew: Am anxious, like a lot of our listeners, I think, you know, we'll be getting this in the morning and please do make go out, vote. And then, you know, like the rest of us, you're probably going to be sitting around and watching the election returns come in. And have I been through as much of the data in as opening arguments way as possible. And I think I figured out how to make sense out of all of it. So

0:01:59 Thomas: I think I'll probably be like digging a bunker or something. I don't know, is a bunker useful? I don't know. Yeah, not really. Okay, well, I gotta got to do something.

0:02:02 Andrew: Bunker would not be particularly useful tonight. Look, you got to do something. Mean, let's start off with the reality of the numbers. Right. The reality of the numbers are that the Biden administration did a bunch of good things that were very public, that drastically improved the overall presidential numbers. Going from approval ratings in the high 30s to approval ratings around 43, 44 percent.

0:02:34 Thomas: Wow. I didn't know it crept up that high. That's nice.

0:02:36 Andrew: That Yeah. Significant movement, not enough.

0:02:40 Thomas: No.

0:02:40 Andrew: And you are looking at what our best interpretation contextually of what the data tell us, it tells us that we are looking for the Democrats to hold the Senate, to narrowly lose the House of Representatives, and probably expand their governorships. And want to tell you that's that not great measured against historical midterm elections. That that is a tremendous performance. Right.

0:03:07 Thomas: Yeah.

0:03:08 Andrew: Bill Clinton lost 60 seats in the House in his first midterm election. Barack Obama paved the way for the Tea Party. That was 1994 and 2010, respectively. So not getting killed on the one hand, you can look at it and be like, the way, well, the weight of history, like that's a, you upper Echelon result, salt. Now, you can feel disappointed that when one political party's position is fascism and insurrection are fine, and the other political party is no it isn't, the idea that the that mandate is very likely to be okay, well, let's split the difference between those two.

0:03:12 Thomas: Yeah. Yeah, yeah.

0:03:40 Thomas: It's hard to be happy with doing pretty Pretty well against that political party. Yeah.

0:03:50 Andrew: That's really hard. Losing the House will suck and we're going to talk about It means, uh, know, not only that it will be the end of the January 6th commission, but it means that the House is going to be is going to spend the next two years doing completely worthless stuff, holding Benghazi hearings and impeaching.

0:03:54 Thomas: It's catastrophic. Yeah.

0:04:08 Thomas: God. Hunter Biden's laptop. Excited for a bunch of that crap.

0:04:14 Andrew: It Yeah, it will B nonstop nothing. But we were already at nothing in terms of getting anything done done legislatively anyway, um, this makes this even slightly worse because we don't have the reconciliation process to kind of cram stuff through. Yep.

0:04:28 Thomas: And it'll be the ultimate heartbreak if we gain two senators, which would have allowed us to never have to think about a certain two unnamed piece of shit senators again, but we wouldn't have the House. And so eventually, so we would do nothing. And and then a bunch of ignorant people would think like, oh, we gained senators and the Democrats still aren't fixing everything.

0:04:48 Andrew: Let's put that into its place contextually, because senators are elected on a staggered scale, right, like a third of the Senate is up for election every two years because they serve six, six-year terms. Adding senators in this cycle is still a really, really good thing, right? We could walk away with expanding the Democratic lead in the Senate, which, by the way, would not do nothing in the sense that it would mean that there have been a handful, like Neera Tanden is one of them, but there have Been a handful of Biden appointees that Joe Manchin was like, well, I don't know that I like this person. So there is still value in expanding the Democratic majority in the Senate. And it goes without saying, if we have a bad night and the Democrats also lose the Senate, will cover that next in week's opening argument. That would be a catastrophe.

0:04:54 Thomas: Mm hmm. Yeah. Yeah,

0:05:36 Andrew: And it means that I will spend the next month doing everything I can to get into the hands of decision at the White House my emergency plan for how to avoid, uh, having Mitch McConnell, Mitch McConnell, you for the next two years.

0:05:36 Thomas: Wow.

0:05:52 Thomas: That OK? I I thought those about like Supreme Court seats or my it wow,

0:05:55 Andrew: It would be about Supreme, right, anything that requires, yeah, the advice and consent of the Senate. Uh, is something that Mitch McConnell can can hold up, yeah.

0:06:02 Thomas: Andrew's personal nuclear button that we don't even know about. So he hasn't. It's secret, if in case anyone doesn't remember, it's a secret plan Andrew has. Sure.

0:06:04 Andrew: Yeah. So It it's in the briefcase underneath Donald Trump's passports. So I guess I want to throw, I can't help but optimist prime this a little bit, um, of the things that happens every cycle is that pollsters try and figure out what their likely voter screen look like. It is certainly plausible to me that in an election in which the downsides of Trump are on the ballot, but Trump himself is not on the ballot, that there may be a screen model that undercounts Democratic enthusiasm, argument, yeah, no, look, I get it. We're going to track what that is.

The the reason that this is bad is, imagine if I said, you've got to flip 20 coins in a row, but you can only lose eight of them? You'd be like, all right, well, I'd rather be on the other side of that. That is, broadly speaking, the case against the Democrats retaining the House. It there are very few pickup opportunities, although there are some that have not been discussed. And there are a bunch of really, really close races. And the idea is, you under normal conditions, if you expect a normal distribution, i.e. coin flipping, that you're probably going to lose enough to to then make that balance in the house flip. So let's talk about that specific with numbers.

Right now, it's 50-50 in the Senate. Democrats need zero, right? They need a net of zero. A net gain of two would be a phenomenal night. In the House, a lot of people are getting these numbers wrong, and I don't know why.

0:06:45 Thomas: Yeah, okay. Yeah

0:07:48 Andrew: The House is currently comprised of 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans, and three vacant seats. Those three vacant seats are Indiana's 2nd District, in which Jackie Walorski died. That will be a Republican hold. Florida's 22nd District, in which Ted Deutsch resigned, that will be a Democratic hold, okay, so that makes it 221 to 213, and then the interesting case of Florida's 13th District, in which Charlie Crist, now a Democrat, has resigned, and it looks like a Republican pickup, but put an asterisk by that, right? And the reason you put an asterisk by it is because this is a redrawn district that the modeling looks to show as a Republican plus seven. So you would think, all right, well, the Republicans are probably going to pick that one up. The race is Eric Lynn, the Democrat versus Anna Paulina Luna, who is a lunatic, who was the Republican.

0:08:38 Thomas: Nice.

0:08:47 Thomas: Of her to give us that, uh, mnemonic, that's yeah

0:08:49 Andrew: Yep. She lost the the last race in a far more democratic friendly district before the redistricting against Charlie Crist, who is a better democratic candidate than Eric Lynn, but the last two polls have been tied, right, October 26, St. Petersburg shows at 46, 45, and the one before that, and again, this is going to be themed throughout, a lot of this, House races are very lightly polled. Polls are expensive and you know, so we have incomplete data across the board, and here the the immediately previous one, um, showed it 47 47 in early October, right, so with enough time to kind of bake in the Biden student loan and marijuana forgiveness and the boost, uh, that they got, so I, 538 says the Republicans are definitely going to pick this one up, um, if they do, right, that makes it 221 to 214, and that means that the Democrats can lose three seats over the course of the night.

Net three loss over the course of night, that, by the way, would, uh, leave them with a 218 to 217 margin, and it would let Henry Cuellar of Texas's 28th district play Joe Manchin, right, so he would get any, that is the most conservative Democrat in

0:09:10 Thomas: Yeah, yeah oh

0:09:57 Andrew: Congress.

0:09:57 Thomas: Yeah Okay, still better than nothing, still

0:09:58 Andrew: Yep. Still better than nothing. But but yeah, so that's where if we hold the line, that's Where we will be holding the line and you know, get ready to find a new target of your ire.

0:10:10 Thomas: Get ready for a bunch of people, oh, why is he even a Democrat, okay, so should he switch to Republican, so then we don't have the majority, is that better? Is that a better outcome, you fucking idiots, sorry, okay, yeah.

0:10:17 Andrew: If if I don't know what it means to caucus with someone, then yes, it would. All right. So now let me calibrate you for watching for the night. Right. To get to that point, right, the point in which the Democrats lose the House, not positive, the the point in which Democrats lose the House, but maintain, and maybe even make modest gains in the Senate, it means you are going to see some early bad news, right? It means Cheri Beasley losing to Ted Budd in North Carolina. It means Tim Ryan losing to JD Vance in Ohio. It means the Warnock Herschel Walker race being too close to call and maybe even headed to a runoff. OK, that like all those are things that are likely to make you watch and feel like, OK, well, I want to throw myself off a building now.

0:11:05 Andrew: And I want to tell you that can still be an OK night. Do not. You are not allowed to make a judgment.

0:11:04 Thomas: Yep huh so I, picked out a building, but I shouldn't go in it yet. Okay is

0:11:16 Andrew: You are not allowed to go into a building until 9 p.m. I'm going to explain I'm this 9 p.m. Eastern Time, 6 p.m. Pacific Time. You figure out the rest of your time zones. How polls close. There are early poll closings at 6 p.m. Half of Kentucky, almost all of Indiana. This is worthless. Don't listen to anybody. Don't draw any conclusions about anything. There are no governor's races. There are two solid Republican Senate races. Thanks to gerrymandering. There are no house races that matter in Kentucky or Indiana, like nothing. We will know nothing, not a damn thing until 7 p.m. And even then, not allowed. 7 p.m. is when Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont all have their polls closed. Right. South Carolina has nothing. It's going to be six one Republicans in Congress. They've got a Republican governor, a Republican senator, Tim Scott. Vermont has nothing OK. And and again, here's sort of the first don't go in that building.

0:11:20 Thomas: Well eastern okay, eastern gotcha

0:12:09 Andrew: You probably did not know that Vermont. Bernie Sanders, Vermont, has an anti-Trump moderate Republican governor in Phil Scott. And that Republican governor is crushing in the polls. Double digit lead. He supported the impeachment of Trump. He publicly announced that he voted for Joe Biden in 2020. He is probably the most anti-Trump Republican in the country, and that includes my old governor, Larry Hogan in Maryland. So if you are scared when you see that some Republican rando is winning in Vermont at 7 p.m., don't be scared. He was always going to win. OK. Let's first talk about Virginia, and then we'll talk about Georgia, which is all Warnock Walker.

So Virginia has no governor races, no Senate races that matter. They have the most important early congressional race. If the Virginia delegation comes out, seven to four Democrats. It will be a good, and it will mean that in Virginia's second district, Elaine Luria, L-U-R-I-A, beats Jennifer Kiggins, who is the Republican. So this is a district that was redrawn to be a Republican plus two district. Luria raised $10 million to Kiggin's $3 million dollars, um, the latest poll has been 45 45 um, so you know, at dead down the middle, Luria is the incumbent, um, she's also a moderate, I don't know if she's a member of the Blue Dog

0:12:45 Thomas: Gotcha important information, so

0:13:40 Andrew: Caucus, but, she's the kind of Democrat we love to hate, uh, so if this race goes the other way uh early on, um, Kiggins wins, uh, you can bet there will be a lot of, you of scrutinizing and and hand-wringing and saying, you know, why did we have to, you know, put in this, DINO, uh, and but what, nevertheless, right, this is the first kind of bellwether test, slightly Republican district in a bluing state that went for Joe Biden, uh, but you know, elected that a Republican governor last year has been, has, you know, a challenge for Democrats to to hold on to at the statewide level.

If it's too close to call, then this is things are heading where we the way we want. There's also a disaster play if the race is too close to call or Abigail Spanberger is losing in Virginia's seventh district, that's going to be an early indicator that it might be a bad night because she's plus five in the polls. Like that's that's just much better underlying demographics. Abigail Spanberger should win. Luria Kiggins is is a toss up. So that gives us our first kind of view of Congress. And now we go to Georgia.

Georgia will not tell us anything about Congress because it's going to be 9-5 gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. There are no close races there. Sadly, the gubernatorial race, Stacey Abrams is going to lose if you have been following that, it's you it's a shame she has led in no polls in October. There has been a consistent gap.

0:14:21 Thomas: No what

0:15:06 Andrew: Governors races get pulled frequently. Kemp is over 50 percent. So even if you think there's going to be kind of late movement, don't know. Look, if she pulls off a victory, like then we'll know, you break out the scotch, because, uh, it's a hell of a night.

0:15:13 Thomas: Do you think happened there, then? I preliminary thoughts, is it possible that more was made of that than should have been? I mean, was, maybe was the the close races and our victories in Georgia, was it more about just the surrounding circumstances than any, magic that happened, that there? I don't know.

0:15:21 Andrew: Um could be, I mean, again, it could also be, you know, let's imagine if you're an anti-Trump Republican, right, and that's the kind of votes that we, that are hoping, you carries, uh, Rafael Warnock to, uh, victory over Herschel Walker, right? There's a certain sense of like, you do want to reward the Republican leadership in Georgia, Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who didn't go along with Trump's lunatic scheme, right? And so I, there's a kind of default candidate quality issue here of like, hey, this is not just a knee-jerk pro-Trump Republican. This is somebody who very publicly on the fullest stage stood up for democracy. Again, not a lot, but did a hell of a lot more than most of his colleagues did.

It right, that, and would be my read on the situation, if, you if sort of pushed, um, so Georgia really is all going to come down to the Warnock versus Herschel Walker race, um, there have been a bunch of garbage Republican commissioned polls that have come out that have shown a Walker lead, I can't believe those are true, um, I've seen, I've seen some dissection where they show, like, you Walker getting 40 of the African-American vote, which, um, spoiler alert, that's not going to happen, that being said, Warnock is sub 50 right now, uh, the latest Sienna New York Times poll has it as a three-point Warnock lead, which is way closer than it ought to be.

0:16:59 Thomas: Yeah.

0:16:59 Andrew: So this feels like, it does not feel like there's any scenario under which Walker gets Gets to over 50 percent. And I think if, if you have that situation where you, the worst case scenario is it heads to a runoff, and you we will be there again with the cock disguise raising funds. Yep.

0:17:07 Thomas: Jeez. Boy. Yeah, that sounds familiar.

0:17:20 Andrew: 7:29 on the clock because some polls close at 7:30. The most likely outcome is going going to be a lot of what seems like bad news. Abrams going down, Warnock Walker too close to call, Luria Kiggins too close to call, and all of that will mean nothing. All of that is, yeah, okay, we're probably on track for what we expect the night to be. You can't get disappointed at 7:29. Now, 7:30 polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. There are no races in West Virginia. Ohio will be the best way to calibrate if the night is going to go differently than you might anticipate if there is a major error in polling. What's a major error in pulling? I don't know. The 2016 presidential election. Right.

0:17:38 Thomas: Hmm.

0:18:08 Thomas: Does it feel like those errors just tend to go one way though?

0:18:11 Andrew: They... they do in the era of Trump, with Trump on the ballot. Trump's not on the the ballot, you... it strikes me as not implausible that there could be late breaking momentum to Democrats, that when people get into the voting booth, uh, that, you know, that they're just sick of, uh, creeping fascism, that that polls in and, this, I, I really rate, um, you know, the pollsters have been trying to make sure that their polls are not erroneous and

0:18:34 Thomas: Hmm. Yeah they've overcorrected the other way maybe.

0:18:36 Andrew: Yeah could be some overcorrection the other way

0:18:39 Thomas: Oh well I can't go with you on that at all but you are Optimus Prime so I'm glad you're at least Optimus Priming our audience. Hmm

0:18:46 Andrew: How we figure that out, we look at Ohio at 7 30 So first, Mike DeWine cruising to re-election, that doesn't mean anything, Republican governor incumbent. He's gonna win. The Senate is the first real Democratic pickup opportunity, Tim Ryan versus howler monkey buffoon JD Vance. Vance has had an average two-point lead in the polls, no non-partisan poll has shown Ryan with a lead.

Vance is a garbage candidate, I mean, he's just awful in every conceivable way, um, so if there's a two-point error in polling, this could be a Tim Ryan pickup, right? If there isn't, he's going to narrowly lose, right?

A bunch of people are going going to narrowly lose, and, you know, the Democrats are going to break even, um, but, but if you're trying to say, hey, is there a chance, uh, that we're going to do better, um, the, the, the best way is to take a look at Ohio and go, all right, are we competitive in that Senate race? What about in the House? Now, the House is gerrymandered. In fact, why don't you take a guess, Ohio has 15 congressional seats, what do you think the that likely distribution is going to be in this state, which is a swing but Republican leaning state in presidential elections? Yeah.

0:19:58 Thomas: Well Well, I know I just like to step right into rakes. So 8-7 Republican.

0:20:03 Andrew: 12 to 3 Republican.

0:20:06 Thomas: And speaking of that house balance in Ohio nationally, I mean, we were looking so much better until, what was it, New York? And I can't remember the other state that three of them did it.

0:20:15 Andrew: York, Maryland, California all bailed on the opportunity. In in In Maryland, well, California a nonpartisan committee redraw the maps. In Maryland they submitted a revised map, but initial the Maryland plan would have taken the state's last Republican held seat, which is the eastern shore by Andy Harris, added in a bunch of Prince George's County, which is ridiculous, right? Right. Like Prince George's County is.

0:20:44 Thomas: Doesn't it, doesn't matter, it does. Yeah but Yeah, but it would be hard it would be hardball, nice.

0:20:46 Andrew: No, I agree. It would be it would be extended. The way in which they made it contiguous was by including as the congressional district, the Bay Bridge.

0:20:59 Thomas: How many people live on that? Well.

0:20:59 Andrew: Right. People live.

0:21:02 Thomas: That. You know of maybe

0:21:02 Andrew: So, you know, when you when you see the congressional districts that like go down a highway or what, like there's at least a chance you're picking up a shack. This goes over a you multi-mile long bridge that you travel over when you are headed to Maryland's eastern shore.

0:21:17 Thomas: Aquaman lives there, I don't know, yeah.

0:21:18 Andrew: It's possible. And so in preparation for that, we had a really, not just a great candidate, but like the ultimate middle finger candidate, somebody, full disclosure, not a friend, not even a colleague, but somebody I have met on multiple occasions, have talked to on the phone, uh, she is a lesbian farmer and her, name is Heather Miser, and she has basically been living, uh, on the campaign trail, like, going, meeting folks on the eastern shore with the new gerrymandered map. This is Maryland's first district, uh, she's got no chance, so sorry, Heather, uh, but if it had gone through, it would have been not just the upset of the night, but would have replaced a pro-Trump garbage human being with, you know, an outspoken married lesbian farmer. Like, it would have just been, you know, the chef's kiss of the night.

0:21:20 Thomas: Yeah

0:22:06 Andrew: She is she's a wonderful human being and a and a dedicated progressive. But unfortunately, it's not going to give us that seat. And that's plus, too, right? Like because that is flipping a Republican seat. If Maryland's Court of Appeals hadn't overturned the map, New York really, really hurt us. And we're going to get to New York when the The returns come in. Ohio, Ohio's 13th is Tim Ryan's seat. That's the seat he gave up to run for the Senate. And the Democrat Emilia Sykes trails Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. Pundits have this as a toss up. Five thirty eight says that the underlying dynamics favor the Republicans. It's lightly pulled. It's tough to say, but I'm, I'm looking at that one as a likely congressional loss.

Um, Ohio's first district is, um, the other way around, it is a pickup opportunity in which, uh, long-standing Ohio representative Steve Chabot, um, trails Greg Landsman in the polls, uh, consistently, right, this has been a three to seven point advantage for Landsman, Ohio, throughout, throughout the month of October. And so that could balance each other out. If Democrats are having a terrible night, right, just like they could lose that additional Virginia seat, Virginia 7, they could also lose Ohio 9,

0:22:14 Thomas: Yeah okay I

0:23:15 Andrew: Where Marcy Kaptur, the incumbent Democrat, leads by an an average of five points in a district that was gerrymandered from previously being a D plus 20 to being a Republican plus three district. So, keep an eye out for Ohio 9. So Ohio really is the best way to calibrate the night, right? Because if Democrats are having a better than expected night, they could break even or pick up a seat in the House here. And if they're having a bad night, uh, they could be down two with no pickup opportunity.

0:23:46 Thomas: Think the building metaphor is a little too dark, so I'm gonna say, I'm gonna rate it on buckets of slop that OA is selling for the, for the aftertimes, like how, big is that order, that new patented OA slop buckets, yeah couple pallettes right now, um, and then we'll calibrate based on these election results, how's This episode is brought to you by MedCline. So I had always struggled with acid reflux, especially in the morning. That's when it kicks in so much. And I always thought like, oh, it's because my stomach's empty. Maybe that's why it happens. But turns out there's a pretty simple solution to this that may work for most people actually. If you suffer from painful nighttime acid reflux or shoulder pain, or both, the MedCline patented pillow system is designed to cushion your body in a sleeping position that is supremely comfortable, doctor-recommended, and clinically proven to provide effective natural acid reflux or shoulder pain relief and a better night's sleep.

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0:25:59 Andrew: A little bit more, uh, again, North Carolina can only be optimistic for us, right? Republican Ted Budd has had a slight, uh, one to a two-point lead over Cheri Beasley, just a tremendous candidate, you know, you heard our Matthew Hoh interview, um, 2.6 percent adjusted lead, yeah.

0:26:17 Thomas: Matthew Hoh, is he uh gonna win, or he's drawing attention to the problem of letting Republicans win for no fucking reason, right? And that fixes the problem somehow?

0:26:20 Andrew: It doesn't look like it, so, uh

0:26:28 Thomas: Sorry.

0:26:28 Andrew: Yeah, it does Beasley has never led in any non-partisan poll, but a couple things to think about, has never broken 50 percent.

0:26:37 Thomas: Oh, is this a runoff state?

0:26:39 Andrew: This is not a runoff state. Doesn't matter. You can still win with a plurality. But but generally, when you were talking about the incumbent or the incumbent party, you expect that where there are third party candidates that have filtered in polling. You expect late breaking voters to move against the incumbent. Right. Because presumably, you know, if you were I definitely want the Republicans here. Right, you're declaring for Ted Budd. And if you say like, well, I don't know, maybe I'm going to I'm undecided or maybe I'M to vote third party. That tends to be like I am looking for a reason to vote for the opposition candidate. But I haven't felt comfortable. Right. I'm a Republican, but, you I'm fed up with Trumpism.

0:26:41 Thomas: Oh, okay.

0:27:27 Andrew: I'm looking, or, you know, the reverse, right, if it's long-standing Democratic district and you don't declare for the Democrat, like, or you're declaring for a third party, the odds are higher that you're going to break to the Republican than break back to the Democrats at the end. It's small but persistent, uh, known effect in polling in and in political science. So, um, again, same thing, if the polls are off by 2%, then we might have Senator Cheri Beasley. That would be amazing.

0:27:53 Thomas: Or we might lose by an additional 2%.

0:27:53 Andrew: Right. Right, or if they're 2% the other way, right, we might, who cares? A loss Is a loss. There is also a pickup opportunity. And again, no downside. So North Carolina, in my view, like, it could just not be good news. If Budd, right, beats Beasley, that's what we expect. And if the House just sort of lines up, then that's what we expect, but, but Democrats have a real pickup opportunity. That is North Carolina's 13th district, which is a Republican plus two district, and the and this is Ted Budd's sort of old district. It was completely redrawn again as part of gerrymandering, but this is basically like, that's why there's no incumbent in the seat, is this, this was the district that used to be Ted Budd's district, albeit rejiggered, Wiley Nickel is the Democratic candidate and Bo Hines is the Republican candidate.

0:28:01 Thomas: Wow. Boy,

0:28:45 Andrew: Welcome to North Carolina

0:28:46 Thomas: That wins best names for an election. I mean, those are both solid. If I was voting voting just on name, I think I'd lean to the Democrat, but you know, who knows?

0:28:55 Andrew: Yeah, um, both have raised about three million dollars, Nickel has slightly outraised Hines, um, the polls are dead even, uh, Hines is, of course, former NC State football player, he's 26, he's never run for office before, he's a self-described mega warrior, he's garbage human being and garbage candidate. Um If you're looking at the underlying dynamics, right, likely I'm counting him as being a member of Congress and being a, you know, frequent OA target in in 2023, the Democrats could win the seat, right? If they do, right, you have a way, I'm highlighting all the ways in which, you know, you could be happy. So those are the 7:30 closing. So by 7:59, you may not yet panic, okay? Correct.

0:29:14 Thomas: Oh boy.

0:29:38 Thomas: Okay. So I won't hit submit on the order of the pallets of the slop. I'll add them to cart. All

0:29:43 Andrew: Yeah, but here's what you'll have, you will have a very, very early, so right before the eight o'clock closing, you will have a very early sense of how the night is going, right? We will have an hour's worth of data coming in on Warnock, Walker, Virginia's second district. If Democrats are competitive in Ohio and North Carolina, it could be a good night. If it is still too close to call in Ohio's first and 13th districts, it's going to be a nail biter. And if the Republicans are competitive in Ohio 9, if North Carolina 13 gets called early, if they're competitive in Virginia 7, this could be a bad night. But again, I've got it in 20 point font here in the document, which, by the way, patrons will get the full document. You're gonna love this.

0:30:26 Thomas: Right.

0:30:27 Andrew: You may not yet panic. O'clock as the polls come in, this is the first time you're allowed to panic, okay? There are a bunch of of poll closings. And there may be a bunch of information that comes in. Alabama, Delaware, D.C., Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee have no competitive races. So we're not going to talk about them. And don't, know, when the Republican governor of Alabama wins reelection, that means nothing. But Yeah, here's here's what we do know. Okay. In Rhode Island, Democrats are defending one house seat. And I truly have no idea how this is going to go. This is Seth Magaziner versus Alan Fung. Magaziner, the Democrat, raised three and a half million dollars. Fung, the Republican, two million dollars. This is Rhode Island's second district, and it is a D plus four, retiring Democratic seat. Um, so uh, would think, um, that this should be a Democratic hold. Pundits and 538 say it's a Democratic old, uh, but every independent poll that I've seen from October, uh, has had the Republican Fung in the lead. It's Rhode Island.

I'd like to be a Democrat from Rhode Island, uh, but um, it, I want to put that there because this is the first time I think you would have coverage of, "Oh my gosh, the Democrats lost Rhode Island." You want to know is it time to panic? We lose Rhode Island too, that's a D plus four district, that's a good time to start panicking.

0:30:50 Thomas: Yeah. Oh no.

0:31:03 Thomas: Oh yeah.

0:31:51 Thomas: All Right. Gonna order my

0:31:52 Andrew: Order

0:31:53 Thomas: First shipment of pallets Of slop.

0:31:54 Andrew: Your first bucket. Yep. Um, uh, help make the slop, you know, like to determine yeah

0:31:55 Thomas: Okay. Yeah. Make the slop go down easier.

0:32:02 Andrew: I'm going to talk about all the areas where Democrats are defending seats, because this is, again, like I said, this is the theme of the election. So in New Hampshire, uh, there is one close seat. It is New Hampshir second district. The incumbent Chris Pappas versus Trumper Karoline Leavitt. Um, the RVI in this district is zero, right? Dead even, truly toss-up district. Pappas has outraised, uh, Leavitt. It's 4.7 million to 3.1 million. Um, and uh, again, no polling data that's worth talking about. So, uh, that would, it would, would be very bad. I mean, I can't tell you that the Democrats won't lose the seat. I can tell you this is sort of a truly toss-up, another one of these coins that you just have to hope comes up heads.

0:32:48 Andrew: Governor Sununu has a 20-point lead. Republican governor, he's going to win. Maggie Hassan should not be in any danger, but the race has kind of tightened late, and if If she loses, it's a terrible wipeout night. The Democrats could lose the Senate. So I want to warn you that if you're looking that that this could be a closer race than you expect. But Hassan shouldn't lose and will only lose if the Democrats are getting killed. If there's a polling error that favors the Republicans. Right.

0:33:15 Thomas: Yeah, I mean, I guess general question related to all this. In all your studying, all your document hoarding that you always do, that's what we love you for, are you finding that it's basically just a question of the national attitude? Or are there many races where it really is about the individual candidates and it's going to be, you know, it might split from the, I know you can't predict the future, but like what the polling is kind of showing.

0:33:39 Andrew: It is both. Right. Right. So there are certainly races in which there is an underlying dynamic because of the individual involved. But House races in a way that is not true for the Senate. And weirdly enough, it's not true even in states that only have one or two congressional districts. Right.

0:33:57 Andrew: That like people pay more attention and and tend to be more independent on their Senate vote than they do for their House vote. The House vote will track the national numbers pretty closely for a significant chunk of the electorate.

And again, that's why, you know, you have the situation where, Know, the Biden bump in August and September helped staunch the bleeding on a lot of these candidates and, you Know, leaves us with this sort of margin of uncertainty as As we are recording this four days out from Election Day.

So, you know, things things can change and and and things tend to change in a way, you know, that that's why I've been describing this as Democrats good night, Democrats evil even night, you Know, Democrats bad night slash Republicans good night because it's unlikely, for example, that, Tim you Ryan is going to win in Ohio, but all of a sudden, you Democrats are going to be losing these seats in Rhode Island and Connecticut, even though, you know, you might not think that, how somebody votes in rural Ohio has anything to do with how somebody votes in Rhode Island, but it does tend to

0:35:06 Andrew: Track.

0:35:06 Thomas: But it does because they're friends actually and they talk about it. No, that's not it.

0:35:07 Andrew: Yeah, there So these are all states with one Democrat defending a House seat with some kind of advantage to it, and all close at eight o'clock. So New Jersey, here's a good example of one that I think is an exception to what we just talked about. This is Tom Malinowski is the incumbent. He is running against Tom Keene Jr, uh, in New Jersey's seventh district, um, this is an RVI of R plus one, which, uh, again, Democratic incumbent makes up for some of that, um, outside Republican groups have spent almost 10 million dollars, uh, on this, uh, race, and, uh, Malinowski has, uh, outraised the Democrat has outraised Keen eight and a half million to four million, more than two to one, um, polling, Democratic sponsored polls show this a tie.

0:35:55 Andrew: Keene is a very, very strong candidate with high underlying favorables in New Jersey. He has won statewide before. And so this is an example of where the Democrats could be having a good night and Keene could pull it out. That has nothing to do with sort of the national trends or vice versa. But again, it's another race that the Democrats have to defend.

And remember, their margin for error is three, you know, as, and as I go through these kind of toss ups, know, in Connecticut, Democrats the are defending one seat. It's Connecticut five. It's a D plus three district. The Democrat is Johanna Hayes, who is the incumbent. The Republican is George Logan. Hayes has led in the polls.

So you look at it and you're like, yeah, she's probably going to win and she's probably going to win, but it's kind of a coin flipping, you know, it's right, it's a 60 40 coin, um, but you know, you have enough of those uh, Maine Democrats are defending one House seat, that's Maine's second district, in which the incumbent is Democrat, uh, Jared Golden. He's raised five and a half million, uh, the Republican is Bruce Poliquin, who's raised three and a half million, uh, and, uh, then the independent spoiler candidate is Tiffany Bond, um, this is an R plus six

0:36:44 Thomas: I'm just trying to think the topographical, like the composition of that coin. That's really interesting.

0:37:09 Andrew: District

0:37:09 Thomas: But is it a spoiler for Republicans or a spoiler für us?

0:37:10 Andrew: Uh It's, this is actually a spoiler for us, um it is a spoiler that helps us that could have

0:37:14 Thomas: Does for us mean? Is this a spoiler that helps us or a spoiler that hurts us? Oh, good. Yeah, third parties are great. Hey, everybody in Maine, third-parties are such a good idea, especially right-leaning people in Maine. The only way we're going to get out of this stranglehold of the two-party system in Maine is if Maine Republicans vote third-party to send a message to the candidates that you are fed up with this two-part bullshit. So please, I strongly, strongly. In Maine only. Can I do, can this part only be in Maine? How do I do that?

0:37:21 Andrew: Yeah yeah

0:37:48 Thomas: In Maine, only for Republicans who are listening or just right-leaning people, third party, the way to go. It's the only way to send a message to your candidates to be better next time.

0:37:47 Andrew: That's right we'll out, uh The polling shows Golden with an average, showing of about 47 percent, Poliquin, uh, in the mid to high 30s, and Bond at eight. So if, if Tiffany Bond collapses late, uh, and that floods to Poliquin and there's a polling error, then Democrats could lose the seat. Again, they're probably not going to, but, but you're tiptoeing across the ice, so this, this is why we're watching. If the Democrats lose a seat in Maine, it's going to make it impossible for them hold to, the practically make it possible for them. Maryland, we talked about how gerrymandering cost them a pickup opportunity, which would have been a net plus two, the Eastern Shore. It also, that revised map redrew Maryland's sixth district, a district I know very well, and an incumbent candidate I know very well.

0:38:45 Andrew: Well, this is David Trone, one of the co-founders. The Trone brothers founded Total Wine and somebody I spent a lot of time interviewing with before starting my current job.

0:38:58 Thomas: Feel like I've contributed a lot of money, a lot of money to that over the years. So wait, is this a good candidate or a bad candidate?

0:39:06 Andrew: He's a fine Democratic candidate, incumbent.

0:39:08 Thomas: Okay, good. Because he's got a lot of my money.

0:39:10 Andrew: Yeah, seat was made much more competitive. The Republican is Neil Parrott. It is now rated as a D plus two district.

0:39:19 Thomas: So wait, does he actually have financial stake in Total Wine? Or is he related to the...

0:39:24 Andrew: No, no, no. I mean, he's one of the co-founders. He

0:39:26 Thomas: Oh, wow. Okay, so this is a win-win for him. Because if he wins, that's great. If he loses, we're all going to be needing to get so blasted that the Total Wine revenue is just going to flow through the roof. Through the roof! What a brilliant maneuver by him. He must have thought of this and been like, God, this is perfect plan.

0:39:27 Andrew: Yeah. Yeah, it could be the case. It would be obviously bad if Democrats lose this seat tonight and they could. Again, I don't think they will. But but the theme of all of this is it's mostly all downside in Illinois. There is one pickup opportunity and three seats to defend. So the three seats to defend, I'm telling the same story over and over again. Illinois Sixth District, Sean Caston, the Democrat, has outraised Keith Pacow, the Republican, five to one, five million to one million.

It's a D plus three district, it has been very lightly polled, you would expect Caston to win, but is it impossible for Caston to lose? It isn't. Illinois 17th District, this is a uh retiring Democratic incumbent, it's at D plus two district, um Sorenson, uh the Democrat, is polling well, is up nine, uh but the Republican here, uh Esther Joy King, has outraised the Democrat two to one, five million to two and a half million. So, you know, could this wind up being closer, this could wind up in a close race. And in Illinois's 14th District, this would, this, I think, would only happen if the Democrats are getting destroyed. Uh, Lauren Underwood is the incumbent, she, uh, leads Scott Greider, G-R-Y-D-E-R, uh, the Republican, but she has outraised Greider over 10 to 1, six and a half million to 575,000. Typically, when you're below that million dollar threshold, like it's just hard to to stay competitive and then have a good ground game, right?

0:41:07 Thomas: Yeah.

0:41:08 Andrew: So, you know, all of those things favor the Democrats holding onto those three seats. Could they hold onto those three seats and also pick up Nikki Budzinski in Illinois's 13th District? Uh, she leads Regan Deering in a Republican held district, uh, was redistricted to be Democratic plus three, uh, she leads in the polling, it's lightly pulled, again, uh, outraised, out fundraised two to one, three and a half million to 1.9 million. Um, this should be a Democratic pickup. So you look at Illinois and you would say, okay, well, here's a bright spot on the night at eight o'clock, uh, we should hold all three close house seats and maybe pick up Illinois 13. Um, that'll be fantastic, and and that's the way the numbers are looking right now.

0:41:50 Thomas: Nice. I might look at the slop return policy at that point and be like, maybe I don't need as much as a slop. We'll see.

0:41:52 Andrew: Yeah. Really?

0:41:58 Thomas: Show is brought to you by the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's a podcast. You should definitely check out Jordan's show, which Apple named one of its best in 2018. Is aimed at making you a better informed, more critical thinker so you can get a sense of how the world actually works and come to your own conclusions about what's happening even inside your own brain. Each episode is a conversation with a different fascinating guest. And there's definitely something for everyone here.

There's a really wide range of guests on this show. There may be some people that you're not a super big fan of, but there's also a bunch of people you're definitely going to be a super big fan. He talks to everybody, really.

A recent episode you should check out if you don't, haven't read about or heard about or know about the Iran protests, episode 746, Jordan Harbinger has Yas al-Azzadeh on, who is a clinical assistant professor of Persian language and literature and the Persian program coordinator at New York University, university and take you through the history, what's going on, why it started, and where it might be likely to go. Check out that episode, that's the Jordan Harbinger Show.

0:42:56 Thomas: You can't go wrong with adding the Jordan Harbinger Show to your rotation, it's incredibly interesting and there's never a dull show. Search for the Jordan Harbinger Show, that's H-A-R-B as in boy, I-N as as in Nancy, G-E-R, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

0:43:14 Andrew: Really want to return the buckets, um, would be if anything good comes out of Florida, that

0:43:19 Thomas: I mean, that's just always true, honestly. Like, you could say that at any time.

0:43:20 Andrew: Is Always The Case Uh Ron DeSantis is destroying Charlie Christ in double digits, it just, it's gross and horrible and DeSantis should be shot into the sun rather than re-elected, but there it is, Marco Rubio has a solid six to seven point lead over Val Demings. Despite The Fact that He doesn't want his job, yeah, I, yeah, um.

0:43:38 Thomas: Just how? Just, no. So we've lost a lot of ground in Florida.

0:43:42 Andrew: Yes. There are no toss-up races in the house. Um I mentioned the Florida 13, that was the Christ seat, um, but again, could be a big Democratic night, uh, if that is in fact a Democratic pickup, it, and could be, right, we just don't know, there's not enough information, that is Eric Lynn and Anna Paulina Luna, yeah.

0:43:47 Thomas: Oh, my God.

0:44:01 Thomas: What happened? I thought we were letting out all the convicts to be able to vote for us, and that was our evil Democratic plan. Just didn't work, huh?

0:44:09 Andrew: It has not worked, um, same Thing, uh, Florida 27, um, this is an interesting race because this is Annette Taddeo versus Maria Elvira Salazar, who is the incumbent, um, this was redistricted to be way more conservative in 2020, and stop me if you've heard this before, uh, Taddeo was a way better candidate, uh, but, you know, there's a significant Cuban population, very conservative district, politically, um, Salazar here, here, the Republican, has outraised Taddeo, $5 million to $2 million, plus there's been a significant Republican national spend. So, you know, probably not going to pick that one up. But if we're having a great night, you don't pick up one or two seats in Florida. So that's how you really are. You can definitely, you now, check out of Amazon and log into Total Wine and start putting some champagne in the cart if

0:44:11 Thomas: Dang.

0:44:56 Thomas: Ooh.

0:44:56 Andrew: There's any good news coming out of Florida.

0:44:57 Thomas: Anything happens in Florida. Yeah.

0:44:58 Andrew: Yep. Flip side, load the buckets back up in Pennsylvania.

0:45:03 Thomas: Oh, my poor shopping cart. It's just, ah, make up your mind, man.

0:45:07 Andrew: Yep. And here's why. We should have a lot of good news come out of Pennsylvania. But the problem is, is that any mixed news is bad. Democrats are defending three close seats in the House, the governor and senate races should be locked down slam dunks, right, even though some recent polls have shown some tightening, particularly in the uh Fetterman Oz race, but if if Fettermen doesn't beat Oz then it will be a disaster night, right? If Mastriano somehow wins, then the polls are off by 10 plus points, right, Mastriano can't win the governorship. But, you there's a big, enough hidden racist vote and, you the charlatan Trump or Dr. Oz gets into the Senate, you we'll all be buying a lot of buckets. So, so that's what I mean by this is, look, is that likely to happen? That's not likely to happen.

But, but so the only news that we can, that can come out of Pennsylvania is bad news, if we, if right? We don't pick up the governorship and plus one in the Senate and, and then the three House districts are, they're all basically the same story, right? Democratic either incumbents in Pennsylvania 7 and Pennsylvania 8, or this is Conor Lamb's old district in Pennsylvania 17. And and in all three cases, right, Pennsylvania 7, Susan Wild is the Democratic incumbent.

0:45:31 Thomas: Yeah, geez.

0:46:19 Andrew: She leads Lisa Scheller. But it's an R plus 2 district. Wilde has slightly outraised Scheller. The Democrat has slightly outraised the Republican. Same thing, Pennsylvania 8, Matt Cartwright, the Democratic incumbent. Jim Bognett, the Republican, it's an R plus four district. Cartwright leads in the polling. He's the incumbent. And Pennsylvania 17, Chris Deluzio leads by six in polling over Jeremy Schaefer in an RVI of zero. This is the one that I, again, I think Democrats would feel the most comfortable about holding on to, but you have to hold on to all three of these, this right is just the theme over and over again, can't lose coin flips, can't lose coin flips, can't lose coin flips

0:46:57 Thomas: Well, I'm going practice flipping coins on my own. I'm just going to get really good at it. We could do the trick where like, if it's on the top of our hand, we're like, oh, we'RE going to flip it. You know, we could do that.

0:46:58 Andrew: You should

0:47:07 Thomas: That's the old kid thing. No, you have to flip It on the tie. And then if you see that it's already, you already already won. You're like, no, you don't flip it on the top of your hand. That's definitely don't do that.

0:47:07 Andrew: Right that's exactly know of course that how crazy would that be, yeah, um, so by 8:59 you will now know if it is time to panic. This is the first time, I I will tell you, it is officially OK to to panic because you'll know how many of these defending Democratic House seats we've lost. You will know if the Democrats have made good on any of their pickup opportunities, right? Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, that they could be up three Senate seats at this point. Again, that would require significant late. But we're talking about a two point movement to the Democrat. We're not talking about anything upsetting the underlying dynamics of this race late. And we're talking about garbage Republican candidates. So, you know, it could happen. I don't think it is very likely to happen. And if the Democrats are losing decisively in North Carolina and Ohio and it's tighter than you would expect in Pennsylvania, you have good sense.

0:47:16 Thomas: Yeah.

0:48:09 Andrew: It's this time not to get out. It's time to put on our negatron hat. Still But won't know the majority of the information. And the big thing is going to come down to what happens in Arizona, which could be good, very good or very, very bad news. So that takes us forward one minute in time to nine o'clock. Yeah. That's his win. Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming. No races in Louisiana, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming, as you might expect. Couple things to know. So in Kansas, the Democrats are actually favored in a close gubernatorial race. Laura Kelly the Democrat favored over Derek Schmidt, and again that is because Kansans, watch, this is still blowback from how bad a governor Sam Brownback was, they

0:48:27 Thomas: Jeez. I definitely know who that

0:49:03 Andrew: Yeah

0:49:03 Thomas: Is. Cause I follow Kansas politics.

0:49:06 Andrew: Republicans got a chance to actually put their quote policies into practice in Kansas, one of the deepest red of the deepest red states, uh so Brownback went in and like slashed state income taxes and all uh of a sudden like everything fell apart and so Kansas voters are like, you know what, we still want to elect like monsters to to go represent us in the U.S. Senate, um, but when it comes to actually governing, we're not sure Republicans can do that.

0:49:22 Thomas: Wow.

0:49:32 Thomas: So it was a real Liz trust thing.

0:49:34 Andrew: So exactly, exactly, a Liz Truss thing. So you get that little happy bump out of Kansas at nine o'clock. Wisconsin is probably going to be a disappointment. The Democrats are defending one house seat, which looks like a loss, which I'm going to tell you about. Mandela Barnes, the Democratic candidate, was running a good race against Ron Johnson, monster and incumbent Republican senator from Wisconsin, conson, uh, but uh, Johnson has had solid single digit leads, two to five points, and you might say, like, well, two to five, like a solid two to five point lead is a real lead, right? Consistent across all the polls, it looks like things sort of broke late for him. He has now cleared 50 in some polls, again, he's the incumbent, uh, and they have both raised around the same amount of money, 35 million for Barnes, 32 million for Johnson. So is a case where the incumbent Democratic governor, Tony Evers, is probably going to win, but bad night could lose. The Democrats likely to are pick up the Ron Johnson Senate seat, even though sending him packing would be delightful.

And that House district is Wisconsin's third district. Brad Pfaff, P-F-A-F, is running against Derek Van Orden. This is an R plus four district. If Republicans pick this up, it would make Wisconsin, you want to talk about gerrymandering, a 6-2 Republican state in terms of House candidates, which is preposterous.

0:50:06 Thomas: Oh yeah, Yeah. Yeah,

0:50:54 Andrew: Van Ordon has way outraised Pfaff, the Republican, six million to one and a half million. He's led in the last polls, which were in August, this right? Has been rated lean to likely Republican by, you know, sort of every professional poll watcher. So bad news in Wisconsin. Expect that we are losing that seat in Wisconsin and so, you if we're net minus two or worse coming into this, then we're right at like, okay, Democrats have lost the House.

Um, and uh, flip side, uh, true bellwether, uh, of the night, there was an absolute toss-up race in Omaha, Nebraska, that is the Nebraska's second congressional district, it's the one that Biden won in 2020, uh, that, you know, they separate out their yeah electoral, so Biden got that electoral vote, the in Nebraska, this is Tony Vargas versus Don Bacon, the Republican incumbent, even RVI district, rated a toss-up, they're essentially even in fundraising, basically no good polling, the last one showed Bacon with a one point lead, which is, you know, nothing, so yeah, this is a true toss-up and represents a real opportunity for the Democrats to swing it by two, right, if they, if they take away Republican

0:51:37 Thomas: Oh yeah.

0:52:04 Andrew: Seat yeah so

0:52:04 Thomas: You've been talking about these times, you know, eight 59, nine o'clock, whatever. What about all the mail-in, you haven't really talked about that much. We know of these results, which ones we can be like, okay, however it sits now is how it's going to sit, or is there going to be the huge blue shift thing that we wait for?

0:52:22 Andrew: Most states do not have the same same issues with requirements. So, for example, in the 2020 presidential election, Pennsylvania still has the requirement that you cannot open any mail-in ballots until all of the in-person ballots have been counted, okay? But Pennsylvania those three congressional races will be affected by it. But by and large, Pennsylvania isn't going to matter. It mattered a lot in 2020. So most states don't have those stupid rules and. So, for example, in Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, Republican secretary of state, just published today as we record this, that Georgia is has surpassed a million mail in ballots. Ballots it's had the highest rate of mail-in ballots at this point in time in history, despite the fact that, you know, they passed all of the draconian, you

0:52:39 Thomas: Oh, God. Yeah. Oh, gotcha.

0:53:14 Thomas: Yeah,

0:53:14 Andrew: Know, no water in line bills for in-person voting.

0:53:15 Thomas: Maybe. That is why there's more mail in, like, I can't get any water. So

0:53:21 Andrew: Yeah, It was SB 202 that made it harder to vote. 1.017 million people, uh, through the first days of early voting, according to, to Brad Raffensperger. So most of these states are calculating the, uh, mail-in votes now. It's just the the weird dynamics in a presidential election led to that. So, but again, uh, there could be, you, a blue wave. Like, I think the way in which that's going to play out is if it's a positive night, you have the possibility for a blue wave, barely preserving a Democratic House, right? Because all of these coin flips will remain too close to call until subsequent

0:53:21 Thomas: Okay. Yeah. I gotcha.

0:54:01 Thomas: Okay, so

0:54:01 Andrew: You know, mail-in ballots are counted it

0:54:02 Thomas: If a bunch of stuff isn't called, that might be a good sign for us? Yeah.

0:54:05 Andrew: Absolutely. Is a good sign.

0:54:07 Thomas: Okay. Let's

0:54:07 Andrew: Right. So and and and we're about to get to some of the big states with a lot going on. We talked about Democrats could win the seat in Omaha. Here are a couple more states with some toss-ups. Minnesota's 2nd District. This is a D plus 1 district. Angie Craig is the Democratic incumbent. Tyler Kistner is the Republican. She's probably favored. She's raised $7 million, which out-raised the Republican 2 to 1. In Iowa, Democrats are defending one more seat, Cindy Axney, the Democratic incumbent, in an R plus three district, over Republican Zach Nunn. Uh, the latest October poll shows a Nunn plus two lead, but it's also a pollster rated B slash C on 538. And Axney has outraised Nunn three to one, 6.6 million to 2.3 million, and is the incumbent.

So, you know, that's again gonna be a coin flip. Live where I think we are likely to know, um, there are couple states that will tell us a lot. One of those is Arizona. Arizona has been the subject of litigation as Trump, Trump has deployed so-called election poll watchers out there. There was a consent order issued by a judge that basically said, no, no you can't get within 75 feet of people. And no, you cannot open carry your assault rifles at polling places, which had to be litigated. So that tells you where democracy is right now.

0:55:13 Thomas: Yeah, oh, Boy.

0:55:28 Andrew: And again, this you is the last point to kind of reshape the direction of the night. Democrats are having a great night and get crushed in Arizona. It's going to be a bad night for the Democrats and vice versa. Here's what I mean by that. Every race here is the race that has the potential to kind of reshape things. Things governorship uh katie hobbs versus carrie lake uh lake is a Trumper. Yep, exactly. It's a true toss-up. Lake has had some good polling lately, but she's nuts. Right, Mark Kelly, uh, Democratic incumbent in the Senate, has led all race long over Blake Masters, another, you know, pro-Trump election denier garbage candidate, um, almost certainly gonna win, uh, but can't, uh, can't mark that down as a win yet. Um,

0:55:49 Thomas: And Did he win by scuttling all the Democrats' plans and being, and a real middle-of-the-aisle compromiser? Because I think that's the only way to win in Arizona. I'm pretty sure.

0:56:11 Andrew: Yeah. No, weirdly, Mark Kelly has been a pretty solid progressive candidate for

0:56:22 Thomas: What? No, that's not possible. You have to completely ruin Democrats' lives to have any chance of winning in that state.

0:56:24 Andrew: Yeah, Yeah, Um, Arizona is another state that, you know, redistricted all its congressional districts. And and so Democrats are defending three congressional districts right now. One feels like a pretty solid hole. That's Greg Stanton in Arizona's fourth over Kelly Cooper. This is a D plus two district. It is rated likely Democrat everywhere by all the poll watchers. Stanton has outraised his Republican opponent two to one, has a sizable lead in early August polling, right? Plus seven lightly poll. But like that, that feels like Democrats ought to hold on to that one. But but they could still lose Arizona's first and second districts involve. These are Democratic seats in which, in the first district, Jevin Hodge leads David Schweikert. This is an R plus two district toss up polling.

0:56:28 Thomas: Huh.

0:57:16 Andrew: It's rated toss up to lean everywhere, except weirdly 538 thinks that this is a slam dunk for Schweikert for the Republican. And I have no idea why. They sort of go by underlying demographics. But everybody except, you know, 538 thinks that this is a toss up, and 538 thinks that this is a slam dunk Republican pickup. So watch Arizona's first district when the results come in. Hodge is slightly outraised. He's the incumbent.

He's outraised the, like, all of the typical things that you would look to as a as a an election watcher would seem to favor the Democrat. Um, uh, Arizona's second district, this feels like a toss-up as well. This is Tom O'Halloran, who is actually the incumbent in the first district, but he's been redistricted into the second. He is facing off against Eli Crane, the Republican. This is the toughest district.

It's R plus six, but again O'Halloran is the incumbent, but to a lot of people who were in that district, right, and, um, again, rather like the Elaine Luria race, Virginia second, uh, O'Halloran is is a blue dog. He's an ex-Republican. He resigned, he, from the Republican party, uh, in the era of Trump. Um, but seriously, like, I looked at his voting record, like, he's been solid ever since coming

0:58:28 Thomas: Yep.

0:58:28 Andrew: To the House, uh, and he was unopposed in his primary. So, want you to complain, like, you know, get out there and run. Crane is, of course, a Trumper, a lunatic. He's never held office. O'Halloran has slightly outraged Crane, but Crane also spent a bunch of money in the primary. So that may translate into a bigger advantage late. The sparse polls that we've had show this a tied race. This would be really good if Democrats hold all three of those seats, one, two, and four, in Arizona. Um, and they could. Right, again, like, that's the theme of all of this is is they could. Um, and there's even a pickup opportunity in Arizona's sixth district. Uh, remember I told you, uh, David Schweikert is running as the Republican in a Arizona one. He was the incumbent in Arizona six. I told y'all. So they moved all the districts around. So, uh, this this is Schweikert's old seat.

0:59:17 Andrew: Kirsten Engel is the Democrat, Juan Ciscomani, the Republican, R plus three, slight fundraising lead to the Republican Ciscomani. And the latest poll in August, again, for whatever that's worth, had Engel, the Democrat, up forty nine, forty seven. So this seems like a real kind of pickup opportunity. So, again, it, you know, if it's, you know, 9 30 Eastern time, and the Democrats are up one seat in Arizona, all of a sudden you feel very differently about this night than you did, you know, 15 minutes earlier. So Arizona has the potential to be a game changer. Um, Colorado has a bunch of new districts, and so, uh, the Democrats are defending one seat and Colorado seven. Um, that looks like they should hold. Britney Peterson Anderson has a narrow lead over Eric Adland.

1:00:04 Andrew: That new district that was created because of the census is Colorado 8. And this is one of these where all the underlying, it's an RVI plus zero true toss up. All of the underlying demographics favor Yadira Caraveo, who was the Democratic candidate. But Barbara Kirkmeyer, the Republican, has had a narrow polling lead. So, how do you weigh that out?

1:00:24 Thomas: I don't. I just let you do it.

1:00:26 Andrew: And now we get to some blue states and some real opportunities for Democrats to go on offense. But they they have to both play defense and, you pick up these where they can.

1:00:37 Thomas: I'm going to say, blue state is usually, aren't we just playing defense on those?

1:00:41 Andrew: No, they're actually real pickup opportunities, opportunities. Um, So Michigan, uh, the seventh and eighth districts, uh, are, uh, Democrats defending, including, including Michigan's seventh. That's Alissa Slotkin, uh, who has had Liz Cheney out to campaign on her behalf. They both serve on the January 6th committee, and Liz Chaney went out to say, look, and I agree with her on basically anything, but she's a good person, she's done good work, you should send her back to the House of Representatives. Um, that's a pretty significant statement to make this What's an R plus two district, so anybody

1:00:44 Thomas: Cool. Wow. Yeah, but unclear if it'll help or hurt. Okay.

1:01:16 Andrew: You pick off there is going to help, uh, Slapkin leads in the polls and, and that feels like a hold. Uh, Dan Kilday in in Michigan's eighth district, um, again, this is an R-plus-one district, lightly pulled toss up, uh. But Kilday has outraised his opponent, the Republican Paul Young, and, know, is the incumbent, has all of those advantages. Also feels like likely a hold.

So, to pick up opportunities, Michigan's third district, Hillary Shulton, has a nine point lead in the polls and has outraized her Republican opponent three to one. This is a D plus one underlying district. This feels like it should be a win. Right, so you can you can take one off the board, uh, you know, if you were at net minus three at this point, you get to go down to a net minus two, right? This is this is good. Um, and Michigan's 10th district, Carl Marlinga Uh, the Democrat, versus John James, the Republican. They got, against the difficult-to-pronounce name of Marlinga, they got the most generic name possible, John James. Uh, Republican retiring, held seat, there's an R plus three district. Um, James hasn't cleared 50 in any of the polls, he has way out fundraised the Democrat. Um, feels like, uh, this is one where, you a better candidate, uh, might have made this, uh, uh, more of a competitive race. Feels like Marlinga is going to come a little bit short, uh, but keep your eyes out. You, for, had asked about New York, right?

1:02:36 Andrew: Democrats are defending four seats and can pick up two. This would have been much bigger advantage had, had the gerrymander map gone through, but, but it didn't. So I'm going to talk to you about those two pickup opportunities, because, uh, again, if we're at the point where Democrats are losing these toss-up seats in New York, uh, it's probably a bad night. Um.

1:02:35 Thomas: Yeah, It really sucks that we couldn't just gerrymander. I mean, I know there are a few people who still feel like, for some reason, we need to be the change we want to see in the world when it comes to gerrymandering, that just doesn't make any sense, like running against a party that's like, "we don't want to really even do elections anymore." So the high-minded principle of, well, if it's on our side, sure, we're going to lose the election, but we will have been very principled in our loss. And that'll be the greater benefit, will be the installation of some principles to our democracy. And the other side's like, "cool, we won by cheating and we don't want that anymore, no democracy." Democracy, what, what did that do, what did that do. And it's, I think we did try to play hardball, it's just there was, you know, some judges in New York.

1:03:35 Andrew: Both.

1:03:35 Thomas: Right, and due to that constitutional amendment or something, boy.

1:03:38 Andrew: Both cases, New York and Maryland, went up to the state's highest court, and they threw it out.

1:03:43 Thomas: I wish we had justices like, they do that, just do the Republican outcome at this point, that would have been, would have be nice if they just, you know, did the Democratic outcome, huh.

1:03:48 Andrew: Yeah. So here are your New York Democratic pickup opportunities to watch. Bridget Fleming in New York's 1st District. This is an R plus 3 district that is rated lean Republican. But Fleming's a good candidate. She's outraised the Republican Nicholas LaLotta 2 to 1. There's been zero polling. I have no idea where that is. So Watch it. New York 22nd District, Francis Canole is the Democrat. Um, this is Brandon Williams, the Republican, running in a, uh, Republican, uh, held district that was moved out due to the redistricting. Underlying demographics are D plus one. Canole has outraised Williams, 2.6 million to 750,000 and is has a slight lead in the most recent polls. So two seats you could pick up. I'm not, not going to tell you about the four that they have to defend. Texas, uh, two seats Democrats have to defend, uh, including Henry Cuellar's seat that they probably are gonna hold on to. But, and, uh, one pickup opportunity, Texas 34, Vicente Gonzalez versus Mayra Flores. Flores is the incumbent.

1:04:12 Thomas: Boy.

1:05:00 Andrew: She won that seat in a special election earlier this year. This is a D plus nine underlying district. Flores has outraised Gonzalez, four million to three million. Gonzalez led in some very old polling. Who knows what's going on? But this D plus 9 district, you got to feel like you've got pretty good chances there. And so, you Democrats could go up a House seat in Texas if they hold on to the 15th and the 28th. I'm sorry to tell you, despite the fact that we have made multiple Beto O'Rourke donations, that he is probably going down in flames.

1:05:20 Thomas: You'd Hope. Gosh.

1:05:35 Thomas: Why? Why can't we have nice things?

1:05:36 Andrew: Yep. I know these were all the nine o'clock closings. So by 10 o'clock, as we move to the 1030 range, it's now basically going to be over. Here's what you're waiting on. There's some interesting races in Nevada, Particularly right? For the Senate, Catherine Cortez Masto versus Adam Laxalt. Democrats are defending two more House seats in Nevada. Nevada one and Nevada three. There's one more truly stupid story that I want to tell you about. And again, if you make it all the way to 11 o'clock, this probably isn't going to change your overall mood. But it is an illustration of the perils of voting third party in a first-past-the-post system. That is, third-party voters might help elect Oregon's first Republican governor in 40 years.

1:06:23 Thomas: Oh, come on.

1:06:25 Andrew: Oregon, Joe Biden won the state 57 to 40. Democrats crush it statewide. Races, candidates are running for the gubernatorial election, and the incumbent governor, Kate Brown, who's very popular, is term limited. Right, yeah, another fantastic stupid idea. So the candidates are the, the major three candidates now are Tina Kotech, uh, who is the, uh, progressive in the race, Betsy Johnson running as the centrist, you know, Kotec is too liberal, uh, and Christine Drazen, uh, Trump supporting idiot. Here's the way it happens. So that they are all. All the Republican, right, was elected to the state legislature. So it's three women who are all running, who all have some credentials, not Herschel Walker. Right. And

1:07:15 Thomas: Oh, yeah. I don't know if there's a candidate invented that's as bad as Herschel Walker. He's the bottom of the barrel.

1:07:17 Andrew: I it's crazy. It's it'S ridiculous. If you wrote a fiction book, you would not pick Herschel Walker. It's nuts. Ranked choice voting would, of course, solve this. But, yeah, Bernie Sanders has endorsed Tina Kotek. Know, that led an awful lot of folks to say, well, you know, I'm going to vote for the, you sensible centrist in Betsy Johnson, which, of course, paves the way for Republican lunatic to possibly win this gubernatorial chair. And again, no runoff, no requirement. Whoever wins the plurality on election night wins.

1:07:51 Thomas: So me get this straight. It's It's a centrist spoil spoiler third party candidate.

1:07:54 Andrew: Yep. So, What's- here's what's happening right don't- like we don't typically talk about these too much. The centrist candidate is bleeding off Democrats who who think that Kotech is too liberal, right, and I would say to- we would say two Betsy Johnson the same thing we said to Matthew, how- get the out of the right. Yeah, sorry,

1:08:08 Thomas: Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. Centrist ruin things, too. This is- not- a this isn't some, like, argument that we take on just to stop, like, more left candidates from running. Any third party candidate, before you have fixed the voting system and actually enacted rank choice voting of some kind, some different voting system, it is worthless to do this. So,

1:08:13 Andrew: Yeah. No, Unless unless you're in a very- very conservative state, and it's going to allow a Democrat to sneak in, at which point it's perfect.

1:08:37 Thomas: Sorry, I switched off that. Yeah. If you are in the state of whatever you said and you're a Republican, this is a great idea. Everybody in Oregon, this Is a terrible idea. If you're centrist, just you're going to effectively elect help elect a Republican a Trumper in Oregon. Oregon. Geez.

1:08:54 Andrew: At the end of the day, I think this is going to come home for Kotek. The last polls show it thirty-nine, thirty-nine and fourteen, which, you know, is as toss up as you get. Right. But Johnson. Right. Betsy Johnson, the independent centrist, was in the high 20s. She was almost tied with the Republican in August, but since then has basically bled all of her support to the Republican. Right? So she's dropped from twenty-nine to 14. That 15 percent went directly to the Republican.

1:09:28 Thomas: Hmm.

1:09:28 Andrew: Right. As Republican voters were like, OK, not. Oh, look, opportunity to pick up. Well, we're coming home now. And right, that means the only supporters left of Betsy Johnson are Democrats who think Kotech is too liberal. So our plea to them, if you are listening to this show and you you

1:09:29 Thomas: Interesting.

1:09:43 Thomas: Pull your head out of your fucking asses and vote for the person who actually has a chance of winning. Thank you.

1:09:45 Andrew: Yeah we actually could be speaking to real Oregonians here uh, that are you middle of the road Democrats and and I want to tell you right, this is your time to take one for the team. We tell progressives to take one for the team all the time. Uh, don't care how liberal you think Kotech is, get out get, vote for vote

1:09:52 Thomas: Yes. Yeah. Who cares? That's the person who has the realistic chance of wanting. That means they deserve the win.

1:10:07 Andrew: Yep Absolutely right. That's why I wanted to kind of end on that story. I think it sort of brings it full circle. Uh, but the the results, you know, we will know. Uh, I think kind of around, the you know, Nevada closes at 10 o'clock, so you, we'll, really have a lot of data by then.

Uh, you know, we've sort of shown you the inflection points, we've shown you, you know, what the night looks like and when you can't panic and when you can. The, the plus I look like, hey, sometimes, you know, you you go to, I just played roulette, right? Like, you sometimes you go to roulette and you spin the wheel and it comes out red 10 times in a row and and black. So, you know, this is a roulette wheel with red and blue on it.

But if the Democrats spin a lot of blue in these, these uh toss-up, you, you, uh, know, coin flip to 60, 40 races, uh, a slight, there's a slight chance. There are lots of ways that it could go badly. Um, there are very few ways for it to go disastrously, but you gotta, you gotta be watching that.

1:11:03 Thomas: Yeah, well, this was excellent work. This is our complete guide. Boy, you left no stone unturned, Andrew. Andrew. That's why we listen to the show. So I'll know how to calibrate my slop bucket order accordingly. You there's a chance that by the end of the night, there is a chance I'm opening a warehouse to be able to house all the slop. Or maybe not. Maybe I have returned the slop one way or the other. We'll be using this as our guide. Thank So you for the breakdown.

1:11:23 Andrew: Yep.

1:11:29 Clip: Thank you for being a friend, yeah, travel down the road with me, say we started from the bottom now we're here girl,

1:11:38 Thomas: And now it's time to thank our hall of famers our all-time greats on patreon.com/law Ah, enjoying all the goodies, enjoying, by the way, this very episode, they heard early enough to prepare even more slop orders than I, you know, they got, they probably emptied that storefront. I'm going to have to pick another online dealer. All right. They are. I'll start us off. We're in the quartile method this month. And thank you to Erica Davis, Emma, the Aussie barrister. How much do I need to pay to hear everything Eli's ever had bleeped? Backdrop Books, at Backdrop Books, identified 133 backdrop books for Thomas. You're next, Andrew. Show us the goods. Ooh, okay. Maybe you better submit to at Backrop Books. Patricia Inslee, at Oracle 410, Rawls OG position. I like that.

1:12:25 Andrew: Agreed.

1:12:25 Thomas: Sex and gender are different things, and people should stop using them interchangeably. Sure, yeah. Great. Kayleen Kunzel, Syracuse Law 2L. Patty B., texaschainsawlawyer.com, loves to sue cops and landlords. Hannibal Lecter packed a pack of pickled peckers. Okay. Robert Whiteman, your friendly neighborhood union lawyer. Brit, the title of administrator general is entirely made up. I'm just an IT admin with a love for stupidly fancy titles. Robert Reichel, I'm not a patron, and it's presumptive to assume everyone at a live show is one.

1:13:02 Thomas: Jason Young. Yo yo mofo, Yoko Ono's hobo dojo. Okay, praise beetle, lamb chop. Trojan Horse News, a funny meme to share with your uncle Frank, with real news snuck in the comments on Facebook, as Trojan Horse News. Interesting idea. I wonder how many people at the Capitol on January 6th were also at Woodstock 99. Yeah, yeah, that's, uh, there's some overlap, as I think I said last time, a mild, warm. Warm bath with bubbles. And take it away, Andrew.

1:13:03 Andrew: And A big thank you to LC, to. I continue to be a patron, for the shout out to Kelly, hi Kelly, hi Kelly, Alex Boyer, Len Bogan, Hunter Kinsey, not a health ranger, Woodland Shadows, check out my Instagram if interested in custom wire art, so that is woodland underscore shadows check out their IG, go dig a hole where the Constitution used to sleep, Matt Hunt, also these nuts, well, look, A will always laugh at these nuts, but seriously, you kind of just change your name to Mike and had a great pun there, but anyway, everything important, love these, coming up, you gotta fight for your right to ex parte, next, the CDC says take legal advice from a podcast, Jeremy Ashinghurst, our best patron ever.

1:14:20 Andrew: I'm fast at sex, Michael Gross, Niclaus Tucson, live show, best damn tacos in the nation and chance to hug a cactus, isn't hug a cactus the thing you say to your enemies, I don't know, purplecouch.com, p-u-r-p-l-c-o-u-c-h.com, going through a divorce, listen to assembled experts to shift your mindset from failed marriage to fresh start, loaf of orange, Marion the corgi, yay, Jamie, comedian Aaron Trahan, at comedian AET, come to Madhouse Comedy Club in San Diego, objection, Perry Mason has no relevance to this case, overruled. And the, the five-second rule also applies to using, the five-second rule also applies to, joke two months on a row.

1:15:02 Thomas: All right. Complicated one there. Thanks, top patrons. Hope you're enjoying the benefits. Get on patreon.com/law pledge at the $5 level to join their ranks. Start declaring how fast you are at sex and having us laugh every single time. It's fun. I love it.

1:15:17 Clip: Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes the bar will eat you.

1:15:23 Thomas: And now it's time for T3B answer time. What a bizarre question. I don't even know what, is what a weird book, let's see, I know, I say that every time, how'd I do?

1:15:33 Andrew: Yeah. Yeah. So, Thomas, this was a 15 year old girl went on social media, claimed that her former boyfriend was a murderer who cut a boy into pieces and buried him in a landfill. Then that causes the former boyfriend's girlfriend to leave the former girlfriend. And then couldn't I jump in and say anything because I agree with you. I think this means this refers to the 15 yearold girl and not the ex-girlfriend. But but then

1:15:57 Thomas: But It really doesn't matter because Nothing happened either way. Oh.

1:15:59 Andrew: It says if the former boyfriend says I'll kill that, you know, gendered slur, you picked a statement does not make the former girlfriend guilty of a crime. And that that is, of course, the correct answer where you paused on. And this is really good. And again, think this question is not dissimilar to kinds of questions you get on the bar exam in a couple of ways. Number one, the overloading you with irrelevant facts in the fact pattern.

1:16:12 Thomas: Okay, geez. Yeah.

1:16:27 Andrew: That is absolutely a bar exam staple. And number two, you have the statement may make the former boyfriend guilty of second degree murder. And if you're thinking, well, may write like what if he also kills her? Right. No, right, because nobody's killed anybody here. So it's obviously Not guilty of attempted murder. There has not even been an attempt. Right. But even as you play out that may statement, think about it this way, there is no universe in which the statement itself, right, makes the boyfriend guilty.

1:16:41 Thomas: Exactly. Yeah. That's A good point. Yeah, would be more like it may help to convict him. Or yeah.

1:17:03 Andrew: Yeah. It might, who knows, but Like, like, it is testing criminal mens rea, right? And so saying, I'll kill that gendered slur absolutely tells you nothing about the mental state of the boyfriend, right. It says that, you know, other than he's about the criminal intent, I should say, right, Right. It tells you nothing dispositive about whether that the boyfriend actually has the criminal mens rea to carry out second degree murder. So because there's no universe in which the statement becomes what's determinative, you can conclusively say may make the for now it might might aid in the conviction. But the statement itself is not what's going to make the boyfriend guilty. Guilty so best

1:17:06 Thomas: Okay. Okay. Tells You nothing Really Huh.

1:17:57 Andrew: Answer a statement does not make the former boyfriend guilty of crime

1:17:57 Thomas: All Right, well It may seem easy, but if you've been along with me, the mind games this bar new book, is playing, boy, when they throw you an easy one, it's almost harder because you're like, what's, what's the trick, what's One of these is poisoned, but okay, got that one right, happy about that, why don't you tell us who this week's big winner is?

1:18:10 Andrew: All Well, Thomas, this week's winner was CaptainGingerSnap on Twitter. And, uh, boy, we might have to start trolling places other than Twitter for our answers. Anyway, CaptainGingerSnap says, A, it's fine to say that you'll kill that B as long as she isn't there, which might make an assault. So B, like, the right, hurl your threats when you are safely far away from repercussions. A truly terrifying analysis that happens to be bang on. So congratulations, Captain Ginger Snap, on being this week's winner, and everyone let's give them a follow, they are at c-p-t-n-g-i-n g-e-r-s-n a-p at Captain Ginger Snap on Twitter, and congratulations on being this week.

1:18:59 Thomas: And that's our show. Hopefully, you know, hopefully it goes well.

1:19:04 Andrew: Hopefully, you know, that's all we can say. Hopefully, you know. Bye.

1:19:09 Thomas: Hopefully Optimus Prime reigns victorious. We'll see you next time.

1:19:15 Clip: I move for a bad court thingy. You mean a mistrial? Yeah, that's why you're the judge and I'm the law talking guy.

1:19:48 Clip: www.openargs.com. Be sure to join the Facebook group at facebook.com slash groups slash Yodel Mountain and follow us on Twitter at OpenArgs. This podcast is a production of Opening Arguments Media LLC, all rights reserved. It is produced with the assistance of transcriptionist Heather Leverage, production assistant Ashley Smith, and additional contributions from Morgan Stringer and Debra Smith. Special thanks to Teresa Gomez, who runs our live shows and heads up the OA Wiki, follow at OA Wiki on Twitter. Additional thanks to the moderators of the Opening Arguments Facebook community, Emily Waters, Alicia Cook, Eric Brewer, Natalie Newell, Brian Ziegenhagen, and Teresa. And finally, thanks to Thomas Smith, who edits the show and created the fabulous theme music, which was used with permission.